Sunday, May 08, 2016

Why Demographics Disfavor the Donald

Nothing in politics is guaranteed, so I won't say "Donald Trump will definitely lose the 2016 presidential election," but I will say the demographics are not in his favor; barring another major terrorist attack on U.S. soil or similarly unpredictable black swan event, a Trump victory is extremely unlikely, due to simple demographics.

Remember the 2012 election campaign, when Romney supporters were convinced their candidate would win by a comfortable margin? Although I can't find the link now, at the time I recall a Romney adviser who admitted his boss' campaign strategy was to focus on winning a super-majority of white voters, and ignoring everyone else. Even so, the adviser admitted that due to changing American demographics (the percentage of white voters relative to others drops about 3 percent with each succeeding presidential election), 2012 would be the last time a "white votes only" strategy had any chance of winning the American presidency.

Of course, it did not work. And Romney's campaign merely ignored non-white Americans, whereas  Trump has actively insulted and/or threatened the bulk of them, in addition to polling far worse among women of all colors than Romney ever did.

For all that I dislike Hillary Clinton, I still choose her over a blowhard conspiracy theorist endorsed by the likes of Stormfront and the KKK.


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